Growth forecast errors and fiscal multipliers /

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both st...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Blanchard, Olivier
Corporate Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Department.
Other Authors: Leigh, Daniel.
Format: eBook
Published: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2013.
Series:IMF working paper ; WP/13/01.
Online Access:CONNECT
Table of Contents:
  • 880-01 Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Forecast Errors and Fiscal Consolidation Forecasts; A. Specification and Data; B. Results; III. Robustness; A. Choice of Economies and Role of Outliers; B. Controlling for Other Variables; Actual vs. Planned Fiscal Consolidation; C. Different Forecast Vintages; IV. Extensions; A. Government Spending and Revenue; B. Components of Aggregate Spending and Unemployment; C. Alternative Forecasts; V. Conclusions; Appendix; References; Tables; Table 1. Main Results; Table 2. Europe: Robustness to Additional Controls; Table 3. Europe: Two-stage Least Squares.