Growth forecast errors and fiscal multipliers /
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both st...
[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund,
|Series:||IMF working paper ;
Table of Contents:
- 880-01 Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Forecast Errors and Fiscal Consolidation Forecasts; A. Specification and Data; B. Results; III. Robustness; A. Choice of Economies and Role of Outliers; B. Controlling for Other Variables; Actual vs. Planned Fiscal Consolidation; C. Different Forecast Vintages; IV. Extensions; A. Government Spending and Revenue; B. Components of Aggregate Spending and Unemployment; C. Alternative Forecasts; V. Conclusions; Appendix; References; Tables; Table 1. Main Results; Table 2. Europe: Robustness to Additional Controls; Table 3. Europe: Two-stage Least Squares.