Growth forecast errors and fiscal multipliers /
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both st...
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| Format: | eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund,
©2013.
|
| Series: | IMF working paper ;
WP/13/01. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | CONNECT CONNECT |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Blanchard, Olivier |q (Olivier J.) | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Growth forecast errors and fiscal multipliers / |c prepared by Olivier Blanchard and Daniel Leigh. |
| 260 | |a [Washington, D.C.] : |b International Monetary Fund, |c ©2013. | ||
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (43 pages) | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
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| 490 | 1 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/13/01 | |
| 500 | |a Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Jan. 11, 2013). | ||
| 520 | |a This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis. | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references. | ||
| 500 | |a "Research Department." | ||
| 500 | |a "January 2013." | ||
| 505 | 0 | |6 880-01 |a Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Forecast Errors and Fiscal Consolidation Forecasts; A. Specification and Data; B. Results; III. Robustness; A. Choice of Economies and Role of Outliers; B. Controlling for Other Variables; Actual vs. Planned Fiscal Consolidation; C. Different Forecast Vintages; IV. Extensions; A. Government Spending and Revenue; B. Components of Aggregate Spending and Unemployment; C. Alternative Forecasts; V. Conclusions; Appendix; References; Tables; Table 1. Main Results; Table 2. Europe: Robustness to Additional Controls; Table 3. Europe: Two-stage Least Squares. | |
| 546 | |a English. | ||
| 590 | |a EBSCO eBook Business Collection | ||
| 590 | |a EBSCO eBook Academic Comprehensive Collection North America | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Fiscal policy. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Multiplier (Economics) | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Leigh, Daniel. | |
| 710 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund. |b Research Department. | |
| 730 | 0 | |a WORLDSHARE SUB RECORDS | |
| 830 | 0 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/13/01. | |
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| 880 | 8 | |6 505-00/(S |a Table 4. 2009-12 Panel of ForecastsTable 5. Europe: Government Revenue and Spending; Table 6. Europe: Unemployment and GDP Components; Table 7. Europe: Alternative Forecasters; Appendix Table 1. Europe: Controlling for Ex-post Developments; Appendix Table 2. All Advanced Economies: Robustness to Additional Controls; Appendix Table 3. Europe: 2009-12 Panel of Forecasts, Robustness to Additional Controls; Appendix Table 4. Europe: 2009-12 Panel of Forecasts, Time-Varying β, Robustness to Additional Controls. | |
| 880 | 8 | |6 505-01/(S |a Appendix Table 5. Europe: 2009-12 Panel of Forecasts, Robustness to Additional Controls, Time-Varying β and γAppendix Table 6. Europe: 2009-12 Panel of Forecasts, Controlling for Vulnerability Rating; Figures; Figure 1. Europe: Growth Forecast Errors vs. Fiscal Consolidation Forecasts; Figure 2. Europe: 2009-12 Panel Growth Forecast Errors vs. Fiscal Consolidation Forecasts; Figure 3. All Advanced Economies: 2009-12 Panel Growth Forecast Errors vs. Fiscal Consolidation Forecasts. | |
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