Growth forecast errors and fiscal multipliers /
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both st...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Corporate Author: | |
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund,
©2013.
|
| Series: | IMF working paper ;
WP/13/01. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | CONNECT CONNECT |
| Summary: | This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis. |
|---|---|
| Item Description: | Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Jan. 11, 2013). "Research Department." "January 2013." |
| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (43 pages) |
| Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references. |
| ISBN: | 9781475523904 1475523904 1475576447 9781475576443 9781475532425 1475532423 |
