Explaining The Iraq War : Counterfactual Theory, Logic and Evidence.
Explaining The Iraq War provides an original critique of conventional explanations of the Iraq War.
Cambridge University Press,
Table of Contents:
- Cover; EXPLAINING THE IRAQ WAR; Title; Copyright; Dedication; CONTENTS; FIGURES; TABLES; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; Introduction; Logical implications of neoconism; 1 Comparative counterfactual analysis and the 2003 Iraq war; The value of counterfactual historical analysis; Comparative counterfactual analysis (CCA); Benefits of comparing competing counterfactual histories; Replying to critics of counterfactual reasoning; Conclusions and objectives moving forward; 2 Leadership, political context(s) and the Iraq war; Two common errors committed by proponents of neoconism.
- One versus two dominant perspectives on the Iraqi threat and appropriate responsesDecision-making context(s): one versus multiple decisions leading to war; Gore's right-of-center leadership and hawkish foreign policy legacy; Gore's support for unilateralism ('if necessary') and endorsement of 'axis of evil'; Additional category 'C' evidence supporting Gore-war; Iraq versus other foreign policy priorities; Evaluating alternative approaches to the Iraq impasse; Gore's position on Iraq's WMD; Assessing the causal impact of 'relevant' differences; Counterfactually relevant speeches and statements.
- Gore's speeches to the Commonwealth Club and Council on Foreign Relations (2002)Commonwealth Club (CC), San Francisco, September 2002; Conclusions; 3 Democratic national security advisers; Leon Fuerth
- leading candidate for national security adviser; Richard Holbrooke
- leading candidate for secretary of state; Academic advisers; Graham Allison
- nuclear threat; Bruce Jentelson
- "tough love multilateralism"; Policy advisers
- Ashton Carter and William Perry; Conclusions; 4 Domestic and congressional politics; Democratic support for authorization.
- Sandy Berger
- Clinton's national security adviser (1998)Republican support for assertive multilateralism; James Baker
- former secretary of state (George H.W. Bush administration); Brent Scowcroft: former national security adviser for President George H.W. Bush; Democrats and Republicans in sync on Iraq; The Levin amendment; Comparing Operation Desert Fox (1998) to Operation Iraqi Freedom (2002); Democratic endorsement of other controversial 'Republican' security policies; The Patriot Act; Enhanced interrogations; Conclusions: Gore-war versus Gore-peace revisited.
- 5 American intelligence failures and miscalculationsThreat manipulation, distortions and exaggerations; Structural/institutional explanations for intelligence failures
- not leadership; The absence of politically motivated intelligence failures?; Sixteen words that didn't start a war?; Cyclical nature of intelligence failures; Dueling National Intelligence Estimates; Summary: comparative plausibility as a determinant of WMD consensus; "Failure of imagination," take II; Plausibility, consensus and common decision pathologies.