The signal and the noise : why so many predictions--fail but some don't /

Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction.

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Silver, Nate, 1978-
Format: Book
Language:English
Published: New York : Penguin Press, 2012.
Subjects:

MARC

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245 1 4 |a The signal and the noise :  |b why so many predictions--fail but some don't /  |c Nate Silver. 
260 |a New York :  |b Penguin Press,  |c 2012. 
300 |a 534 p. :  |b ill. ;  |c 25 cm. 
504 |a Includes bibliographical references (p. 459-514) and index. 
505 0 |a A Catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you. 
520 |a Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction. 
650 0 |a Forecasting. 
650 0 |a Forecasting  |x Methodology. 
650 0 |a Forecasting  |x History. 
650 0 |a Bayesian statistical decision theory. 
650 0 |a Knowledge, Theory of. 
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